As we rolled into the room for this week’s live virtual weekly Friday Power Lunch called “The Battleground of Democracy by the Data & the Details,”
author of shared that he finally had all the data from the battleground states. We were thrilled because we had so many questions.The 12-week post-election data was ripe for the pickings, and we invited the best person around to unpack the voter data — Tom Bonier, a friend of the Friday Power Lunch and CEO of The TARA Group and Senior Advisor at TargetSmart to join us to discuss the battleground states – and what we can glean from the results. Watch the video to experience the dive into the data and our lively discussion on the details that shed more light on what the heck happened and what we can do to engage voters moving forward. We have to innovate how we interact with our fellow Americans.
Fighting for the truth and democracy will be key moving forward. Data speaks the truth, but it is important to trust the source. We trust Tom.
Some questions got the conversation started:
An overview of the election results? Did 20 million Democratic votes really ‘disappear’ in the US election? Explain the voter turnout. Did more Republicans come out and explain the numbers behind the voters who stayed home? Did men get off the couch to vote or was it Elon paying for votes? What shaped voter behavior? Was it the economy stupid or propaganda? Or maybe it was both. What happened to young people saving democracy? Who are our voters anyway? And, should stop chasing voters that will never come back and focus on the folks who may swing our way?
Tom delivered. Republicans out registered Democrats in Pennsylvania and across the board. This didn’t just happen this election; we have been falling behind for years. Where we competed, Harris did better. Men and men under 30 went more for Trump. Older Democrats overperformed.
Voter Registration and Elon. What happened?
Tom explains how Dems voter registration fell off while Reps increased and turnout was significantly down on both sides, but on the Dem side a bit more to hurt us in the margins.
It is important to ask the right questions as well. Who voted, and who were the voters that didn’t show up? The Latino vote was interesting. Yes, more Republican Latinos came out to vote for Trump, but he didn’t necessarily swing Democratic Latinos his way, they just stayed home. So, we have a suppression of the Democratic vote overall. The data showed that more Rs were voted than Ds, but Republicans did not increase their voter share in any remarkable numbers, it was that we didn’t show up. Young people 30 and under especially stayed home or went toward Republicans. The 19 million voters ghosted us. In 2020, these voters showed up for Biden. For various reasons, in 2024, they checked out. The reasons Democrats were less motivated is a discussion for another time.
Democratic turnout was better in the battleground state ….
BUT IT WASN’T GOOD ENOUGH!
It is important to understand that how we talk about the results is equally important. Trump has no mandate. A recent poll reports that his day-one actions are not popular.1 So it is important that we push back on this lie that he has a mandate.
Trump’s margin of victory in the 2024 election was not as large as he makes it seem. He won the electoral vote 312 to 226, including all seven swing states. The popular vote, however, was far closer, with Trump receiving 49.9% of the vote with 77,303,573 votes cast to Harris’ 75,019,257 votes (48.4%), according to AP Vote Cast. That’s a difference of 2,284,316 votes. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump by more than 7 million votes.2
Democrats are too woke?
Tom said states that swung toward Trump were the traditional blue states (MD, NJ). He warns before you run to the conclusion that Dems need to lean to the right to win the next election and are misinterpreting the outcome. The data reveals the opposite: Democrats in the blue states did not flock to Trump, they stayed home! We were not reaching our Dem voters.
This information is important in how elected officials approach their votes on MAGA’s harmful bills. For instance, the Laken Riley Act3 passed because some Democrats felt that Republicans had a mandate and their districts were swinging red. To get reelected, some Democrats felt the need to support these horrible bills when that is not the case everywhere. Democrats didn’t go red or change sides as much as they didn’t come out to vote. To turn out our voters, we must do a better job of engaging and ensuring they understand the threat to them.
Persuasion is important, but it is equally important to turn out our voters, not chase Republicans to persuade them to swing our way. Grassroots activists understand that the party needs to invest in year-round organizing and robust voter registration. But what is the key factor is that Democrats stand up for our values and principles and not run for cover and throw the most vulnerable under the bus to save themselves. Otherwise, the hard lesson will be that our party will cease to be the party of the people, and they may lose their seats by standing for nothing.
More great content is on the way from our interview with Brian Rollings from
. Stay tuned.BIG MIC
Katherine White
https://apnews.com/article/trump-poll-pardons-tariffs-taxes-drilling-climate-7fa453197520f091feb8956737feb278
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/national-international/fact-focus-a-look-at-false-and-misleading-claims-made-by-trump-during-his-first-week-back-in-office/4088311/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-passes-laken-riley-act-sending-first-bill-trump-sign-law-rcna188724
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